A recent holiday spurred some soul searching

I recently holidayed to the town of Cordoba in Andalusia in Southern Spain. Something of a black hole as far as Anglo tourists are concerned, it requires taking a train from the city of Seville and has no direct flights.

The town itself is considered one of the jewels of modern Spain. Cordoba is home to the famous Mezquita (mosque) of Cordoba, the site of a Catholic cathedral that was once used as a mosque by the Moors prior to its conquest by Kind Ferdinand of Castile.

While Cordoba is a major destination for domestic tourists interested in visiting a famous part of Spanish history, few Brits even venture there. While the history and culture of Cordoba is a fascinating spectacle, it was when it came to the issue of climate change that a few things struck me.

It is hard to be a climate change denier and live in Andalusia

While the hotter summers are resulting in some discomfort for British workers, it is in Andalusia as well as southern Portugal where some of the more extreme effects of climate change are already being felt.

Many of the predictions around climate change are most apparent in this part of Europe, already the hottest region in our continent with an average temperature of 36°c in the summer months. This year temperatures across southern Spain are in the low 40°c during the day.

This year Spain experienced one of its worst ever droughts. Travelling throughout Southern Spain are signs reminding tourists not to waste their water. Drought is one of the most obvious effects of climate change and one that is under reported compared to the warnings around rising sea levels yet it is the one that is most frightening.

While adaptations around rising sea levels, hurricanes and floods are within the reach of human ingenuity, water is essential to life. Drought threatens the existence of billions of people worldwide as temperatures rise, and you only have to head towards Southern Spain to see that our southern neighbours are already facing considerable pressures.

A combination of poor water management practices and climate change is going to place strain on the ability of people to exist. While globally temperatures have increased by 1°C in Southern Spain and the Mediterranean temperatures have risen by 1.3C. Indeed scientists believe that the Mediterranean faces becoming a giant desert by the end of the century.

What this means for those of us living in the Northern Latitudes is that we may need to be able to accommodate enormous flows of refugees from Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece.

This is in addition to the large flows of people likely to be coming from North Africa and the Middle East. Given the enormous turbulence caused by the flow of refugees from Syria, it is likely that this will spark considerable conflict, to say the least.

Even if we assume that the flows of refugees from Southern Spain and Portugal into the northern provinces such as Asturias is possible we are still talking about over 100 million people in need of homes.

How Europe intends to cope with what could be the movement of hundreds of millions of climate refugees from outside Europe is anyone’s guess, but it is reasonable to conclude that even the most optimistic of assumptions will result in the deaths of tens of millions and open warfare.

It is quite chilling to think that the place that was once the sight of religiously motivated conflict could easily be the site of further wars as existing tensions around migration spiral out of control and as hundreds of millions of people struggle to survive in what is likely to be a planet with fewer zones of habitation. This is a conflict that I am likely to see in my lifetime.

Don’t ask me when climate change will happen

If the question is ever asked about when climate change will begin to have catastrophic effects the question should be answered “yesterday”.

Wildfires this year killed over 60 people in Portugal, a phenomenon that will become increasingly prevalent as temperatures rise globally. In addition to the drought, pressure on farmers and the inability of people to work in extremely tough conditions, it is fair to say that we have unfortunately already entered a period when climate change is taking lives.

My fear is not so much for Spain and Portugal, which both have relatively homogenous populations, strong local governments and stable social structures.

The concern is how countries in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa will cope with such horrendous conditions. The prospects for billions of people unfortunately looks bleak as many of the countries in MENA have poor governance and existing challenges relating to economic and food security.

Climate change is a particularly Anglo phenomenon

Climate change denial does not seem to be prevalent in Southern Spain. Perhaps because it is difficult to deny something that is literally killing you or perhaps because of cultural differences relating to the social attitudes around climate change and what that means for businesses and society itself.

A 2014 poll by Ipsos Mori revealed that the three countries that most disagreed with the fact that climate change is caused by human activity are the United States, Great Britain and Australia.

Given that Australia is going to be particularly hard hit by climate change, this somewhat discredits the idea I mooted earlier that climate change denial is connected to the degree to which people experience its effects.

On the other end of the scale China,  Argentina, Italy and Spain have the fewest deniers. Encouragingly, China is becoming a world leader in solar technology and renewable energy. China faces threats to its survival if it is not able to play its part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, given the pressure that its water supplies will face and the threat of drought.

I had to conclude that the emphasis on industrial capitalism, “growth being good” and a trust in the efficacy of big business in Anglo societies perhaps makes it harder for people to realise that the current path we are on is one that will end in oblivion for all.

Sustainable travel is part of the problem

The problem with climate change is that the environmental costs are met by the planet, not the consumer. My first choice was to go by rail to Southern Spain, given the lower carbon footprint and the fact that the inconvenience of the extra travel time would not bother me.

However rail fares are prohibitive compared to air travel. A return to Southern Spain by train can run to over £400 if not booked with sufficient notice, which is almost twice the cost of a holiday that includes both an air fare and accommodation.

The problem is that rail fares are expensive and hence consumers rationally choose to fly. Governments must act to reduce the cost of rail travel, and invest extensively in high speed networks. This will enable not only tourists from the Northern climates to continue to enjoy their summer breaks, but will also improve the transportation networks of goods and services.

The same issue exists with cruise ships. The technology to build greener cruise ships is moving slowly as there are not the same clear economic benefits that exist with electric cars. Consumers enjoy car journeys without paying the price of petrol, but in the case of a cruise they obtain no benefits from opting to take a greener ship for example. Yet somewhere along the line a cost is paid, which is in the form of greenhouse gases, a cost which is paid by our planet.

It is this experience that is spurring me to build what may prove to be one of the world’s most low carbon ways of travelling on holiday. However governments must act to provide the correct incentives to both consumers and businesses. Tourists opting to inconvenience themselves with longer journeys should receive an economic benefit for doing so, given the break they are giving to our planet.

There is no need to deny people their holidays abroad or the freedom to travel, however enormous investments must be made into green shipping in particular. While it can seem trite to worry about the costs of a few wealthy Westerners, it is essential that people are made aware of the fact that many of the adaptations to building a green planet actually involve relatively trivial sacrifices.

Longer travel times, electric cars and a diet less focused on meat are hardly the end of civilisation but they are met by opposition with those with stakes in industries that have built up fortunes around meat, fossil fuels and aviation.

It’s not too late to act…. but hurry up

The terrifying thing about climate models is that they often fail to account for feedback loops, with the grim reality of the situation we face now becoming increasingly clear to those willing to consider the lives of those living in warmer climates.

Apocalyptic scenarios of hundreds of millions and even billions of climate refugees facing water shortages, unbearable heat and local conflicts spurred by a fight for resources may be the next big calamity facing our planet. While it is easy to be lulled into a sense of security if you focus on the living conditions of the wealthiest people on earth, reality has a hard knack of knocking its way into people’s consciousness.

I fear only that the world may be too slow in acting to make the necessary choices to preserve our civilisation, as the alternatives look too grim to be considered.

Cordoba was a chilling vision of a future that may soon arrive much earlier than anyone had expected.