Turkey, one of the world’s fastest growing economies, is at the dawn of an energy transition

The country has the potential for all types of renewable energy and has joined the global energy transition due to recently introduced policies as well as the increased cost competitiveness of wind and solar energy.

Turkey saw record auction results for solar and wind last year and a significant growth in its solar PV capacity. Turkey took the top spot in Europe with an additional 1.79 gigawatts added to its capacity.

As a result, today more than 7% of electricity generated in Turkey is sourced from solar and wind. Including other sources of renewable energy generation and this figure rises to 30%. With the demand for electricity growing rapidly, the key question is how to ensure supply while cutting energy imports.

While the country is developing in favour of renewables and increasing the proportion of wind and solar in its system, the question remains to what extent Turkey’s grid can cope with a higher proportion of renewable energy.

The newly founded SHURA Energy Transition Centre in Istanbul is providing an answer to this question through a new study called “Increasing the share of renewables in Turkey’s power system: Options for Transmission Expansion and Flexibility”.

According to the study, Turkey can supply 20% of its electricity via wind and solar power by 2026 by a combined installed capacity of 40 gigawatts. The study uses a novel power system modelling approach and is the first of its kind carried out  for Turkey.

The results of the model show that the impact of integrating 40 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity to the transmission grid is limited: redispatch and renewable power curtailment are found to be negligible.

The economics are also favourable. The current plan for expanding the transmission capacity can accommodate this without additional investments in grid infrastructure.

The study also investigates an ambitious scenario where 60 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity is built. A wider distribution of solar and wind capacity across the country — based on demand, substation capacity and speed and irradiation — produces remarkable results for integration of this capacity.

When redistribution is complimented by options such increasing the flexibility of thermal generators, storage and demand response, the findings show even wider benefits.

The additional investment needed in transmission capacity is just 10% higher than the current plan of the transmission system operator and the curtailment of renewable power can be sustained below 1%.

The country has the potential to become a leader in reshaping the energy landscape due to its diverse and abundant availability of renewable energy resources, an industry that can offer solutions to improve energy efficiency and investors that are ready to utilise the opportunities offered by new and flexible business models.

This evidence-based analysis is designed to highlight priority areas and inform energy planners, system operators, decision makers and key market players on the consequences of a higher shares of renewables in the energy mix and what that would mean for the investment in transmission and integration strategies in Turkey.

Being one of the fastest growing economies, and in view of the subsequent increase in Turkey’s electricity demand, the analysis also provides an important contribution to discussion around energy planning as well as investors’ perspectives on increased solar and wind power capacity.

This piece was written by Deger Saygin, the director of the SHURA Energy Transition Centre