Analysing the energy transition

While some countries may find it easier than others to make the energy transition away from fossil fuels, all nations have the potential to do so.

The energy transition involves the large scale deployment of renewable technologies and the move away from the use of carbon based fuels such as coal and oil and gas.

The energy transition will have a number of key drivers that will lead to the adoption of renewable energy based systems as fossil fuels meet their death.

The key drivers include

Regulation

Awareness of the impact of climate change on our habitat

Falling costs

Regulation

To meet the targets set at the Paris Agreement in which no more than 2°c of warming above pre-industrial levels was agreed by 195 nations, the requirements mean that there is enormous political pressure on the signatories to meet their targets.

Given the complexities involved in reducing methane emissions from the agricultural sector the simplest way of meeting the targets is by transitioning away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy as a proportion of electricity generation.

As seen by the achievements of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Portugal and Spain among others, this can be achieved in a relatively short space of time with the political will and the investment in the technology.

Awareness of the impact of climate change on our habitat

Given that the speed at which climate change is beginning to have obvious impacts upon weather patters, desertification and water shortages and is even seen as a leading cause of much of the conflict in the world it is becoming clear that climate change is having a major impact on our future existence on this planet.

The question is can humanity act with sufficient haste to avert collapse? That is something that only time can tell.

Falling costs

A more prosaic driver is that the fall in the cost of manufacturing PV cells and wind turbines allayed to the fall in the costs provided by renewable energy generated electricity means that the falling costs will undoubtedly serve as a major temptation to lure in consumers.

While the transition is certainly underway the key question is timing. Do we have time to wait for the regulators and consumers to switch?

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